Europa League Final: As the 2024–25 Europa League enters the decisive stages, the excitement is building around who will lift the trophy. Following the second legs of the quarter-finals on April 17, the Opta supercomputer has offered updated projections based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the tournament.
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These simulations provide insights into each team’s likelihood of progressing through the semi-finals and eventually winning the competition. At the top of the leaderboard is Porto, who lead the way with a 17.8% chance of winning the Europa League. Their deep European pedigree and strong tactical discipline under pressure give them a clear edge heading into the final stages.
Despite facing tough opposition, their ability to perform in knockout formats makes them the team to beat. Close behind is Athletic Club, with a 10.9% chance of lifting the trophy. With the final scheduled to be played at their iconic San Mamés Stadium, they not only bring historical weight and passionate fan support.
Opta Predicts Europa League’s Road to the Final
The incentive of a potential home final is a significant motivational advantage that could tip the scales in their favour. Slavia Prague follows with a 9.6% probability of winning. A team often underrated, Slavia has proven itself time and again in European competitions. Their cohesion, high pressing, and tactical discipline make them serious dark horses in this season’s tournament.
Tottenham Hotspur also remain strong contenders, with an 8.6% chance of winning according to the supercomputer. Spurs, under Ange Postecoglou, have shown attacking flair and improved resilience. Though inconsistent at times, their squad depth and individual quality make them a real threat if they hit top form.
Roma is next with an 8.2% chance. Despite domestic struggles, they’ve maintained a strong European presence in recent seasons. Their experience and tactical maturity, especially in knockout games, mean they’re never a team to be underestimated. Manchester United rounds out the main contenders, with a 7.1% probability of winning.
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With a talented squad and deep European history, United possess the firepower to go all the way. But will need to show consistency and mental toughness in the crucial upcoming ties. The eight quarter-finalists include Athletic Club, Bodø/Glimt, Eintracht Frankfurt, Lazio, Lyon, Manchester United, Rangers, and Tottenham Hotspur.
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Supercomputer Predicts Europa Front-Runners
As we approach the semi-finals, the road to Europa League glory remains wide open, and fans can expect dramatic, high-stakes football in the weeks ahead. As the 2024–25 UEFA Europa League heads into its final stages, anticipation is rising around which of the remaining eight clubs will go all the way.
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the tournament, using a combination of betting market odds. The Opta Power Rankings take into account both historical success and recent form. Based on these simulations, we now have a clearer picture of the favourites, underdogs, and surprises in the race for Europa League glory.
The eight teams that have advanced to the quarter-finals are: Athletic Club, Bodø/Glimt, Eintracht Frankfurt, Lazio, Lyon, Manchester United, Rangers, and Tottenham Hotspur. These clubs have fought through a new 36-team league stage. The early knockout rounds to reach this point, each hoping to take the final step toward silverware.
Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United are among the most high-profile sides left in the competition. Spurs have been displaying attacking flair under their current manager, and their strong squad depth gives them a good shot at a deep run. Manchester United, with their European pedigree, also remain dangerous.
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Quarter-Finals: Surprise Packages and Europa League Final Dreams
Although inconsistency has plagued them this season, the supercomputer still sees them as one of the more likely finalists. Athletic Club, buoyed by the fact that this year’s final will be played at their home stadium, San Mamés, has a significant psychological advantage. They’ll be looking to channel that energy into their performances, making them a compelling team to watch as the knockout rounds progress.
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Lyon and Rangers are capable of springing surprises. Lyon, in particular, has shown glimpses of brilliance in Europe, and Rangers, with their passionate fanbase and physical style, have caused upsets in previous editions of the tournament. Meanwhile, Bodø/Glimt’s progress to the quarter-finals is already a historic achievement.
While they are considered outsiders, their fearless approach and cohesive play make them a dangerous underdog. Several notable teams have already been eliminated, including Roma, Porto, Ajax, Slavia Prague, and Fenerbahçe. Their absence has opened the door for new contenders and fresh narratives. With the competition finely balanced and no clear favourite, the road to Dublin promises thrilling action and potential upsets in the weeks ahead.
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